Recently I have been asked by many CISO’s, CSO’s and IT administrators–who have become very tired of the constant system patch battle and constant security software updates–whether new operating systems like Google Chrome could loosen Microsoft’s stronghold on the desktop OS and just maybe whether we could be safer 5 years from now.
Actually this is a difficult question. We in the IT industry will likely see more disruptive technologies 5 years from now. So the safest way to answer questions like the one above is to reflect on what’s going on at the moment.
It is clear that there is an ongoing cyberwar. The attackers are cybercriminals who are making a lot of money via malware, hacking, and other malicious activities. They are able to do this because the desktop is pretty much dominated by one OS. If you are an attacker and you focus on attacking Microsoft platforms, you will be able to reach enough computers to make sufficient money. This is a simple economy of scale. As other operating systems (for example, MAC OS) become more popular and gain desktop marketshare, we see more malware there as well. No surprise.
But what if the operating system were very small and open source? What if all the data and applications were stored in the cloud, like with Chrome OS? Would it be safer?
In theory, yes. The OS is smaller, which means fewer bugs (fewer lines of code), and as it is not that powerful, locally installed multipurpose malware indeed might be a thing of the past. I personally don’t believe that open source is riskier because the attackers could figure out the weaknesses faster (the argument we typically hear). Security by obscurity has never worked!
But some attack scenarios might still work:
So again, I try to avoid predicting the adoption of the Chrome OS. I don’t want to predict which OS will be dominant in 5 years from now, but one thing is for sure: The security industry will not disappear, it just will need to reinvent itself to be able to address these new attack vectors.
So no local antivirus with huge signature files anymore but cloud-based reputation services for Web, E-Mail and Files. And of course vulnerability assessment, shielding, encryption… the complete arsenal needed to enable the safe exchange of digital information.